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Seth Curry Duke

By James Blackburn

Game Scouted: Duke @ Wake Forest

Duke Wins 75-70

Box Score

Seth Curry (6’2”, G, SR)

Stats
7-17 FG, 1-6 3 pt FG, 6-7 FT, 2 reb, 2 assist, 1 TO, 1 blk, 21 TP

Strengths
Came out and really impacted the game on the defensive end, which I did not expect. Defended well overall this game, as he was active in the passing lanes, took some charges as the help defender, moved his feet, and even blocked a jump shot. Did a decent job of staying in front of C.J. Harris for Wake and contesting shots (C.J. was not 100% tonight and looked hampered with the goggles he has been wearing after an eye injury sustained against NC State). Most of Curry’s defensive contributions did not show up in the box score tonight, but he held C.J. to 4-12 shooting from the field and was active. Did not take any plays off on that end of the floor tonight.

Offensively, he was looking for his shot early on. He showed the ability to create his own shot by pulling up on the perimeter and had several drives to the basket as well, that he finished with lay-ups. Quick first step, better then I had thought coming in. Tremendous overall shooter, who is shooting better then 40 % from the field and from three, and is a plus 80% FT shooter for his career. Has a great release, rotation, follow through, he squares up nicely and is on balance and he can get it off against good defense with a quick release and by shooting the ball in rhythm. He showed he could hit shots from catch and shoot situations, coming off screens, off the dribble, and with feet set. When he misses, he follows his shot, and his misses are usually straight and off the back of the rim. Not just a 3 point shooter- hit several Rip Hamilton like mid range pull-ups from pin-down screens. Although he didn’t hit his first 3 until 2:45 remaining in the game after missing his previous 5 attempts from deep, he had the confidence to hit a huge 3 to put his team ahead at a critical part of the game.

Wouldn’t classify him as a playmaker, but he did show nice touch on an alley-oop pass to Plumlee when help came on a drive to the basket. Solid frame- looks bigger in the arms then the last year- is stronger.

Weaknesses
Although it was not a big problem for Curry in this game, the fact that he is an under-the-rim type player with average athleticism at best, is going to hurt his ability to finish inside at the next level, similarly to what Duke alum Austin Rivers is experiencing now. He needs to improve his ball handling skills overall, is not capable at this point to advance the ball with pressure defense. Although he is a decent passer, he is not is not a PG and is not a playmaker, needs to develop in both of these areas. Questions then arise about what position he will play and defend at the next level.

Defensively he is content to switch all off the ball screens, which leads to him having to guard a bigger player- not going to work at next level. He did a decent job of staying in front of C.J. Harris this game, but C.J. was clearly not 100 % and I question his ability to defend NBA caliber PG’s.

Struggled shooting the three ball this game-missing his first 5 attempts from beyond the arc, but is a good shooter who Wake had to respect the entire game.

Overview
Curry struggled with his 3-point shot this game, but he played very well overall in my opinion, and was able to show off other parts of his game besides shooting because the Wake defenders ran him off the line. Played well despite suffering an ankle injury a couple weeks back against NC State. Curry did a solid job on the defensive end and his mistakes were minimal. Is having a career best year at Duke, averaging 16 ppg, which is second on team in scoring, and has helped Duke to 18-2 record. I believe he would be a solid pick for a team late in the second round. He will have trouble defending quicker PG’s and bigger SG’s but at worst he could be a knock down set shooter, and nearly every team could use one of those.

Although Curry is an undersized shooting guard with average speed and athleticism, all legit NBA concerns, he does bring consistent perimeter shooting, he comes from a good program, and he is going to work hard to improve every year, just like his brother did. He is a player you don’t have to worry about, as he is a high character guy, comes from a great family, and had a solid, consistent career for Duke for the past couple of years, after shining at Liberty as a freshman.

—

James Blackburn is the Director of Scouting for Basketball Elite and shares his reports with several NBA teams. You can follow James on Twitter right this second.

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Shabazz Muhammad
Photo Source: Yahoo!

By James Blackburn

Game Scouted: UCLA vs. Georgetown

Georgetown wins 78-70

Box Score

Shabazz Muhammad(G, 6’6”, FR)

Stats
25 min, 5-10 FG, 2-4 3pt, 3-4 FT, 1 reb, 2 assist, 1 TO, 15 TP

Strengths
Muhammad was born to score the basketball and he does so in a variety of ways. He has good scoring instincts as he showed the ability to score from beyond arc, knock down midrange pull-ups, and score in post up situations. He is not a high flyer, but is an above average athlete, more explosive then I have seen from him in the past. He tried to dunk in traffic several times and drew the foul. I like the fact he was attacking the rim hard and went in strong. Solid FT shooter when he goes to the line.

One of the areas Muhammad impressed me the most this game was his shooting. Immediately upon entering the game, he hoisted an 18’ jump shot in transition and drained it. Not a smart shot, but it went in none the less and spoke of his confidence as a player. Has a good looking left hand stroke where everything is in balance and stride. He shoots the ball in rhythm and is on balance. He gets his feet square to rim and gets good elevation and has a high release. Even his misses are good when he shoots- misses are straight and off the back of rim. Missed his first couple of threes and then got it going at near the end of the game. Made an immediate impact when he first got on the floor- scored and assisted on his first two offensive possessions.

Average on-ball defender, not as good as he was touted out to be. He did a decent job in the first half of bumping cutters and holding his ground when defending the post. He has a good combination of size and strength- won’t get pushed around on either end in college and won’t have a difficult time at the pro level. Hustles and even dived out of bounds once to save a loose ball in the first half.

Weaknesses
Muhammad didn’t look comfortable on either end of the floor for the majority of the game and looked rusty and somewhat out of game shape. Part of this is to be expected as this was his first college game played after a 3-game suspension. His handle is below average at this point and he must improve his ability to go to his right. Loves to go left at this point went that way the first 2 times he put ball on floor. Georgetown’s defenders recognized this and started to beat him to the spot resulting in a turnover. Scouting reports at the college and pro levels will harp on his inability to go right and take advantage. Drop dribbles the ball too often- very quick to put ball on floor- happened several times in first half. Needs to do better job of finding gaps against the zone. Looked sloppy, trying to find rhythm against zone offensively- looked a little rusty from having not played in a while. Telegraphed a pass first time he touched it in second half and got it stolen. Would have liked to see him attack the zone off the bounce and not be so passive.

Shabazz looked his weakest at the defensive end of the floor. Looked completely out of his league several times on this end of the floor and looked lost. He was the last UCLA player back down the floor each time on D, especially in the second half- must hustle back harder on defense- showed he was not in game shape. Got caught out of position defending his man off the ball a couple of times. Didn’t see the ball and got caught being lazy trailing his man when he cut- Georgetown player spun and pinned him because he didn’t beat his man to spot and his man scored easy basket. Slow laterally- got beat off the bounce several times this game. Poor rebounder- collected only 1 rebound while on the floor for 25 minutes. Doesn’t really attempt to rebound outside his area. Better on-ball defender at this point then secondary defender- but must improve at both.

Overview
Didn’t start and he entered game at 14:12 mark in first half. First game back after being suspended 3 games by NCAA for recruiting violations. Started 2nd half on bench as he did in the first half.

Didn’t do a good job on the defensive end this game, but should develop into a solid overall defender with a solid frame, athleticism, and work ethic. He is not unlike other freshman however in that he is struggling early this season with his off the ball defense- out of position, getting beat to spots. Georgetown makes it especially tough because they run the Princeton offense with lots of screens and cuts and they make you defend through the entire shot clock.

Muhammad is the consensus number 1 pick in most NBA mock drafts. I do not see him getting drafted number 1 or being deserving of a number 1 pick, especially after this game. To his credit, he did still score 15 points, shooting 50% from the floor, and doing so in less then 30 minutes playing time. But he didn’t look comfortable on the defensive end and struggled to create his own shot most of the game- both are red flags at next level, where he will be asked to guard the likes of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Rudy Gay on a nightly basis. I expect him to continue to improve as he plays more games and gets his legs back and becomes more accustomed to the college game. He will get drafted in the top 3 this year, but in a better draft he would probably fall to around 9-12 or so, at the end of the lottery. Scorers such as Muhammad come around every 1 to 2 years, even if they are the #1 HS player coming out.

His game reminds me of Harrison Barnes and I think they will have similar careers. Both players are not only good basketball players, but are good kids and hard workers. They both have similar demeanor on the court and have similar skills as well as similar question marks. He will be a good, but not great, NBA player. He will start on a below average team and put up somewhere between 13-18 ppg for his career. Those are solid numbers, not necessarily number 1 pick numbers, but good none the less. His game doesn’t remind me of OJ Mayo, but his situation does and I think he will follow a similar career path of Mayo as well. Mayo was the #1 HS player/recruit heading to USC. He also had run ins with the NCAA and was a dime a dozen scorer. He is just now coming into his own in the NBA, 5 years into his career. We will continue to monitor Muhammad this season to see if he can justify his status as the number 1 pick in this coming NBA draft. This is only one game (first one at that), and you don’t ever want to put too much weight scouting him one game (Basketball Elite staff likes to scout a player at least 3 times before making judgments about players).

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Comparing the Success of College Seniors to International Players drafted in 2nd round since 2000

Juan Carlos Navarro
Juan Carlos Navarro sits atop the list of good international NBA draft picks.

By James Blackburn

Notes About How This List Was Created

• Good pro means they played for 5 years or more in NBA and/or played/contributed significantly
• For draft years 2010-2011, I left off some Int’l and some seniors because there has not been enough time to evaluate them.
• A bad international player means he hasn’t played in NBA yet at all or hasn’t contributed, same with college senior. Or they played for a year or two, then they were out.
• 4-year guy means senior- no matter if they were a 4 or 5 year guy
• Some of my personal opinion is factored in as well about weather they are a good or bad pick- but my opinion is based mostly on the players stats, upside (if they are current pick- last 2 years), and how long played in NBA, if at all.

Results
Total Good Senior Picks: 51
Total Good International Picks: 17 (4 years of 1 good player picked and 3 years of 0 picks)
Total Bad Senior Picks: 82
Total Bad International Picks: 66

Out of all the picks that were graded (all were not, some players were considered a wash/even/not really good or bad), there were 133 college seniors drafted since 2000 in 2nd round that were graded by myself. 61% of these seniors picked were considered bad picks (may of not stayed long in league, if at all, or didn’t really contribute), leaving 39% of seniors drafted graded as a good pick. 83 international players were evaluated that were drafted in 2nd round of NBA draft since 2000. 79% of these players were considered bad picks, 21% were considered good.

There doesn’t seem to be much of a change with any group after 2005, which was the last year HS players could be drafted. Overall, the results give a slight edge to drafting college seniors over international players, with 39% having success over just 21% of players coming from Europe and overseas. But there are also more college seniors drafted 133 to just 83, so there is less room for error for international players. I will say this though, international players seem to be either star or bust (never even reaching the NBA/or America in that case), and very few in betweens, though there are a few. As with college seniors there seems to be more that fall into that middle category (neither star nor complete bust).

Last observation is that the best 2nd round senior picked in my opinion in last 10 years is probably a tie between Matt Barnes and Steve Blake, based on their years played in the NBA and their contributions on teams, including playoff teams. The best international player picked in my opinion was Luis Scola and Marc Gasol, who are both better players then the college seniors picked. Scola and Gasol are on the verge of being All-Star guys and are both major contributors for their respective teams. Its no accident or coincidence that Scola was a Spurs draft pick.

2000

Good Senior Picks (5)
1. Jake Voskuhl
2. Eddie House
3. Eduardo Najera
4. Brian Cardinal
5. Jason Hart

Good International Picks (1)
1. Marko Jaric

Bad Senior Picks (10)
2. Dan Langhi
3. AJ Guyton
4. Lavor Postell
5. Hanno Mottola
6. Chris Carrawell
7. Dan McClintock
8. Chris Porter
9. Sconnie Penn
10. Pete Micheal
11. Jaquay Walls

Bad International Picks (4)
1. Soumaila Samake
2. Olumide Oyedeji
3. Josip Sesar
4. Igor Rakocevic

2001

Good Senior Picks (4)
1. Brian Scalabrine
2. Loren Woods
3. Earl Watson
4. Jarron Collins

Good International Picks (0)

Bad Senior Picks (9)
5. Jeff Trepagnier
6. Damone Brown
7. Ken Johnson
8. Sean Lampley
9. Eric Chenowith
10. Ruben Boumtje Boumtje
11. Andre Hutson
12. Bryan Bracey
13. Alvin Jones

Bad International Picks (2)
1. Antonis Fotsis
2. Robertas Javtokas Lietuvos Rytas

2002

Good Senior Picks (6)
1. Dan Gadzuric
2. Matt Barnes
3. Lonny Baxter
4. Flip Murray
5. Darius Songaila
6. Rasual Butler

Good International Picks (2)
1. Juan Carlos Navarro
2. Luis Scola (Spurs Pick)

Bad Senior Picks (7)
1. Steve Logan
2. Robert Archibald
3. Vincent Yarbrough
4. Chris Owens
5. Jason Jennings
6. Tamar Slay
7. Corsley Edwards

Bad International Picks (5)
1. Milos Vujanic
2. Peter Fehse
3. Mario Kasun
4. Federico Kammerichs
5. Mladen Sekularac

2003

Good Senior Picks (8)
1. Jason Kapono
2. Luke Walton
3. Steve Blake
4. James Jones
5. Matt Bonner
6. Keith Bogans
7. Willie Green
8. Kyle Korver

Good International Picks (1)
1. Zaza Pachulia

Bad Senior Picks (4)
1. Travis Hansen
2. Derrick Zimmerman
3. Tommy Smith
4. Brandon Hunter

Bad International Picks (10)
1. Maciej Lampe
2. Sofoklis Schortsanitis
3. Szymon Szewczyk
4. Slavko Vranes
5. Sani Becirovic
6. Malick Badiane
7. Paccelis Morlende
8. Remon Van de Hare
9. Nedzad Sinanovic
10. Andreas Glyniadakis

2004

Good Senior Picks (2)
1. Royal Ivey
2. Chris Duhon

Good International Picks (1)
1. Anderson Varejão

Bad Senior Picks (13)
2. Jackson Vroman
3. Lionel Chalmers
4. Antonio Burks
5. Ricky Minard
6. Denard Robinson (Bobcats pick)
7. David Young
8. Justin Reed
9. Romain Sato- bad pick from Spurs- very surpising
10. Rickey Paulding
11. Luis Flores
12. Marcus Douhit
13. Blake Stepp
14. Rashad Wright

Bad International Picks (8)
1. Peter Ramos
2. Albert Miralles
3. Sergey Lishchuk
4. Ha Seung-Jin
5. Viktor Sanikidze
6. Vassilis Spanoulis
7. Christian Drejer
8. Sergei Karaulov-another bad Spurs pick

2005

Good Senior Picks (3)
1. Daniel Ewing
2. Ronny Turiaf
3. Ryan Gomes

Good International Picks (3)
1. Ersan Ilyasova
2. Roko Ukic
3. Marcin Gortat

Bad Senior Picks (4)
1. Robert Whaley
2. Orien Greene
3. Dijon Thompson
4. Lawrence Roberts

Bad International Picks (7)
1. Mickaël Gelabale
2. Erazem Lorbek
3. Uros Slokar
4. M. Andriuskevicius
5. Mile Ilic
6. Axel Hervelle
7. Cenk Akyol

2006

Good Senior Picks (3)
1. Steve Novak
2. Craig Smith
3. Ryan Hollins

Good International Picks(0)

Bad Senior Picks (6)
1. James White
2. Paul Davis
3. Bobby Jones
4. Denham Brown
5. Dee Brown
6. Hassan Adams

Bad International Picks (8)
1. Marcus Vinicius
2. Lior Eliyahu
3. V. Veremeenko
4. Yotam Halperin
5. Eden Bavic
6. Ejike Ugboaja
7. L. Mavrokefalidis
8. Damir Markota

2007

Good senior Picks (2)
1. Carl Landry
2. Aaron Gray

Good International Picks (2)
1. Kyrylo Fesenko
2. Marc Gasol

Bad Senior Picks (7)
1. Chris Richard
2. Derrick Byars
3. Adam Haluska
4. Reyshawn Terry
5. Stephane Lasme
6. Jared Jordan
7. Herbert Hill

Bad International Picks (6)
1. Stanko Barac
2. Renaldas Seibutis
3. Brad Newley
4. Sammy Mejia
5. Giorgos Printezis
6. Milovan Rakovic

2008

Good Senior Picks (3)
1. Sonny Weems
2. James Gist (Spurs Pick)
3. Joe Crawford

Good International Picks (4)
1. Nikola Pekovic
2. Omer Asik
3. Goran Dragic (Spurs pick)
4. Semih Erden

Bad Senior Picks (10)
1. Kyle Weaver
2. Sean Singletary
3. Patrick Ewing JR
4. Malik Hairston
5. Devon Hardin
6. Shan Foster
7. Darnell Jackson
8. Maarty Leunen
9. Sasha Kaun
10. Deron Williams

Bad International Picks (2)
1. Ante Tomic
2. Tadija Dragicevic

2009

Good Senior Picks (8)
1. Jeff Pendergraph
2. Dante Cunningham
3. Sam Young
4. Jon Brockman
5. Marcus Thorton
6. Danny Green
7. AJ Price
8. Lester Hudson

Good International Picks (2)
1. Jonas Jerebko
2. Nick Calathes- went to HS in USA

Bad Senior Picks (4)
1. Goran Suton
2. Jack McClinton
3. Robert Vaden
4. Robert Dozier

Bad International Picks (4)
1. Sergio Llull
2. Sergii Gladyr
3. Nando De Colo
4. Emir Preldzic

2010

Good Senior Picks (6)
1. Dexter Pitman
2. Andy Rautins
3. Landry Fields
4. Magnum Rolle
5. Luke Harangody
6. Jeremy Evans

Good International Picks (1)
1. Pape Sy

Bad Senior Picks (5)
1. Jarvis Varnado
2. Jerome Jordan
3. Stanley Robinson
4. Ryan Reid
5. Dwayne Collins

Bad International Picks (3)
1. Tibor Pleiss
2. Nemanja Bjelica
3. Paulo Prestes

2011

Good Senior Picks (1)
1. Chandler Parsons

Good International Picks (0)

Bad Senior Picks (3)
1. Justin Harper
2. Jon Diebler
3. Vernon Macklin

Bad International Picks (7)
1. Bojan Bogdanovic
2. Davis Bertans
3. Milan Macvan
4. Chukwudiebere Maduabum
5. Tanguy Ngombo
6. Adam Hanga
7. Ater Majok

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By Marcus Shockley

Arizona Wildcats’ Derrick Williams celebrates against the Duke Blue Devils during their NCAA West Regional college basketball game in Anaheim, California in this March 24, 2011 file photo. The Cleveland Cavaliers finally caught a break after a nightmare 2010-2011 season when they were awarded the number one pick in next month’s NBA draft on Tuesday. Cleveland will have the top overall choice for the first time since 2003, when they selected LeBron James, and are expected to choose Duke’s Kyrie Irving or Arizona’s Derrick Williams as the new face of their franchise. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson/Files (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT BASKETBALL)

        
        

What do you take away from an NBA draft in a year where nobody expects games to be played?

It’s too bad for the players who are entering the draft with the hopes of achieving their dream of playing pro ball for the top league in the world, but the reality is that it’s a near-certainty that there won’t be much a season this year, if a season even occurs at all.

The business of the draft itself has chugged right along; the writers pontificate over who should go as a late lottery pick, and mock draft sites work their magic to try and predict which team will select a certain player. But after the confetti and fanfare, the hats and the handshakes with the commissioner, the cold truth is that it could be a while before we see any of these players play their rookie seasons.

How many players will bolt to play overseas to start earning a paycheck? Once a player has decided to stick it out and try the draft, he’s pretty much like the rest of society, which means he’s got to earn a living, somehow. It’s unlikely any of them are going to get the TV commentator jobs that many coaches land between gigs, or veterans slide into when they can no longer stick on a roster.

Personally, I’ve always thought that the draft itself was far too hyped, teams can get a great player from time to time but usually a great draft just means a chance to build around a player; even Micheal Jordan was a starting point, not the entire Bulls franchise when he was drafted out of North Carolina.

For the players who are in the draft, especially the college graduates, they must feel as though they’ve spent an eternity trying to get to their pro career only to have it pulled away from them just as they reach for it.

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By Marcus Shockley

David Stern NBA
Photo: Nets Basketball

There’s a lot of rumors swirling about the NBA labor situation and the potential for a work stoppage, more commonly known as a ‘lockout’. The very word creates a feeling of apprehension and distaste for fans, many of whom remember the last strike-shortened season all too vividly. Many experts and people close to the situation feel a lockout is not only a possibility, but inevitable.

However, one area that has remained somewhat unclear is where this puts the potential college players from reputed colleges and institutions listed in the College Jaguar site who would be entering the draft this year and those who are considering early entry possibilities.

There are a lot of rumors circulating about what would happen to these players in the event of an NBA lockout. Fans of some high profile college programs may be hoping that a lockout will keep some of their star underclassmen from leaving early, while others state that these players can still be compensated by agents.

Darren Heitner, Founder/CEO of Dynasty Athlete Representation and the Founder/Chief Editor of SportsAgentBlog.com, talked about some of the questions regarding the potential NBA labor problems and how it might affect college players this year.

If there is an NBA lockout, how does this affect potential players entering the draft? If, for example, the lockout extended for over a year, would the players effectively be prevented from getting paid or signing?

Heitner: NBA Draft eligible players who have put their names into the draft would still be selected by NBA teams and those teams would retain the rights over those players. Players would only get paid based on the amount of games they play. If there is not a full season, players would earn a pro rata share of the total value of their contract for that year.

If players cannot sign or collect a paycheck during a lockout, would this likely affect players deciding to go pro early?

Heitner: It certainly is affecting players’ decisions to leave college early to play professional basketball. We already have witnessed Sullinger state he is coming back, and more recently, Harrison Barnes has indicated he will return to North Carolina. These are two players who had a very strong chance at being selected in the top 5 of the first round. Others such as Kyrie Irving, Derrick Williams, and Brandon Knight are rumored to be waiting and listening as to what will occur in CBA discussions between now and the deadline to withdraw from the Draft.

There are mixed reports that some agents are attempting to gather funds to help their players during an extended lockout. Is this accurate, or just speculation, and if true, would it extend to players entering the draft?

Heitner: At this point, it seems to be mere speculation, but I certainly would not count that out. I remember last year when Xavier Henry would not sign with the Grizzlies because the team refused to sign him at 120% of his slot (which many teams do without even questioning the player selected). His agent, Arn Tellem, told a newspaper that he was ready to pay his client the difference if the team would not oblige. The bigger agents and agencies with large reserves will certainly be in a better position to provide funds to clients in the event of an extended lockout.

For players who are seniors entering the NBA, is there a possibility that a long term lockout would lead some to try playing overseas for a year?

Heitner: It is not only a possibility, I see it as a likely consequence. Many of these players do not come from the best socio-economic backgrounds and need to start earning money as soon as they leave school. The domestic leagues other than the D-League leave much to be desired in terms of level of play and payments. Furthermore, players need to continue to develop and not lose any part of their games. I do believe that in the case of an extended lockout, players will look to go overseas, but it will not happen until it is clear that the lockout will cancel a majority of the NBA season.

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Derrick Williams basketball Arizona
roygblivious

Derrick Williams emerged this season not only as a solid collegiate player but a potential NBA lottery pick in his sophomore year. On the back of a stellar season, he’s helped the Arizona Wildcats solidify their return to the nation’s premier list of basketball schools with a return trip to the Sweet Sixteen.

In the Wildcats’ win over Texas in the round of 32, Williams was quiet for most of the first half, but came alive in the second half to show some of the prowess that has made him a draft prospect. Although we haven’t scouted Williams fully, there are some great takeaways from his game that will translate to the next level.

The first is his quickness. Williams moves like a small forward with the ball, or even a slashing style shooting guard. However, at 6’9″, he’s got NBA size and bulk. Although he’s not consistently the kind of player to put the ball on the floor to break down the defender, his agility and athleticism make him a match up nightmare for a plodding big man. He can definitely play facing the basket and looks like he could be extremely effective at the 4 spot.

He will have to use his speed to compete as a power forward in the NBA, but ideally, he needs to develop a mid range shot to be the most effective and make an impact. Right now his game is based on being faster and stronger than most of the players who are guarding him, and he can get a step on them in the lane to put up a shot. He’s a good free throw shooter, averaging 75% for his sophomore year, although he has a tendency to short arm his shot occasionally.

He definitely has the tools to be a starter at the next level, if he could add to his offensive range and continue to work on his ballhandling.

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By Marcus Shockley

There was a time when leaving school early and heading to for the pro ranks was only an option for the rarest stars, such as Michael Jordan. That’s certainly changed, and the concept of moving from high school, to college and hopefully into the NBA is now something that the majority of players would like to accomplish as quickly as possible.

The truth is, it’s still only an option for a handful of players, and the complications surrounding making the leap are involved, with a lot of people who have interest that doesn’t always align with what the player wants.

So, when is the ‘right time’ for a player to jump to the pros?

Jonathon Bender

Traditional wisdom has held that there are three major considerations as to whether a player should make the leap from the college (or high school) game to the pro level.

  • Is the player physically and mentally ready for the pros?

    Always tough to gauge, the physical and emotional demands on players entering the adult’s world of pro basketball are significant. Very few people are objective judges of their own abilities and comparison to others, and players are no exception (this is known as the Dunning-Kruger Effect). A player has to rely either on his own understanding of what he’ll need to do to succeed or take advice from others on his future prospects.

    The NBA landscape is littered with players who thought their athletic talent alone would be enough to survive, and they were bounced out of the league or ended up far down the bench. Conventional wisdom would show that the longer the player has had out of high school, the more likely he’ll have an understanding of what will happen once he reaches the pros. This has even held true for Brandon Jennings, who struggled for a year playing internationally, skipping college, before returning to the NBA. He learned the truth about jumping to the pro game from high school; that all that razzle-dazzle in prep school, all of the recruiting rankings and all of the hype don’t mean a thing when you take the court with men getting paid to play. Jennings was held up as a case study of how high school players could avoid college entirely, and served to prove that unless you are both extremely talented and willing to mature, as Jennings was, it’s not an option.

  • Will the player be drafted high enough for a guaranteed contract?

    There are even fewer players who know almost with certainty that they’ll be drafted in the first round. College seniors have no choice but to attempt to turn pro, hoping to land at least in the NBA second round or get an international or minor league contract. But underclassmen who want to make the jump need to have some serious assurances that they aren’t blowing their college degree for nothing.

    Players with serious NBA interest have two major resources, depending on where they play college basketball. Teams like North Carolina, Duke, Kansas and Kentucky have massive NBA connections and can get real feedback on where a player might end up. Not only are the connections vast at schools like this, but they also have huge amounts of experience and networks that can accurately assess whether a player might be able to make the leap or not. It is important for these schools to be able to scout players correctly, because it makes them successful in the long term.

    The other resource for players is more treacherous, and it’s signing or consulting with an agent. These are murky waters for players, where agents are judged by their contacts, and players have no real insight as to whether an agent is telling them the truth or not. Good, established agents are easy to track, but not all players have access to those agents. There’s also a difference between getting a contract for the number one pick in the draft and a relative unknown from a smaller school.

    Adding into the complexity of all of this is the fact that sometimes staying in school can actually lower a player’s draft pick. There are loads of players who were considered lottery picks when coming out of high school, had astounding college careers only to see themselves slide down into the late first round or even the second round. Players have to consider that if they are the projected #1 pick, they will never be projected higher. Their market value will never be higher. The smart choice is to go pro in that case, regardless of the situation.

    In other words, if someone is going to make Kwame Brown the number one pick, Kwame needs to go pro. Case closed. It doesn’t matter if two or three years in college would have make Kwame Brown much more prepared for the pro game.

  • Is there a significant financial need?

    Even though college basketball fans don’t like it, the reality is that most college basketball players, just like anyone else in the world, want financial security and freedom. Even if players don’t come from impoverished backgrounds, almost no one in the country makes the kind of money available to NBA basketball players. Just as fans have needs for cash, from paying the mortgage to medical bills to just having money to buy their children something for the holidays, players are humans trying to survive as well.

    The issue for most players is that in youth, it is hard to look at the future with the Zen-like approach of Tim Duncan, who, as a young man, saw the world the same way that a mature adult would see it: live your life for the moment, enjoy your college years, there will be plenty of money at the end of the rainbow, but only one youth. It’s not easy for anyone to wait and enjoy the journey, and it’s even harder when you are young. Most players haven’t had enough life experience to know that they need to just be patient, and then on top of all of the cultural pressure to make ‘big money’ right now, there are players with real concerns. Some players have parents who need medical attention, or have been simply working multiple jobs for years to get their child into school and give them a shot.

    Those players want to take care of their families, to set themselves up, hopefully for a long time. No one could blame them, but the decision becomes cloudy as the pressure for money mounts.

    As this year’s NBA draft approaches, there will be dozens of players who want to test the waters for the pro game. Most won’t end up in the NBA, even if they leave school early. It’s not even clear if this fact is well known; it certainly isn’t publicized, and players who don’t end up as top picks and on SportsCenter highlights are soon swept aside for next year’s class.

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James Blackburn covered the Overseas Evaluation Camp during the past weekend, and filed several reports regarding the players in attendance.

Here’s the first rundown of some of the players James interviewed, including a former UNC alum.


TarheelBlue.com

Marc Cambell (PG, 6’0”, 175lbs., UNC)

Marc Campbell profile

Mark did well in the ball handling and shooting drills. During the games he did a decent job of controlling the tempo of the game and his team. He has excellent court vision, but also has a problem of forcing passes and this leads to a lot of unforced turnovers. His shot was not falling during the games but he did enough to secure himself a spot during Day 2.

Mark had some interesting stories to share about himself and his days at UNC. He is actually from Italy and hopes to eventually play there, and he is currently working toward obtaining Italian citizenship.

He is going to attend a couple more exposure camps in Vegas this summer to improve his chances of playing professionally. He said the UNC coaching staff is putting together film for him to send to overseas teams. He enjoyed his 4 years at UNC where he won a national championship and “collected a ton of shoes”.

He said one of his favorite and most memorable experiences at UNC was the 100th anniversary weekend where he was able to play with Vince Carter and Antwain Jamison amongst other UNC alumni.

He also remembers Michael Jordan pulling right up through the Smith Center tunnel in a red Ferrari. (Editor’s note: It’s not clear if this is always where Michael Jordan parks at the Smith Center)

Desmond Blue ( C, 6’11”, 265 lbs., Lee University)
Desmond Blue profile

Desmond is big, strong, and physical.

He displayed good footwork and hands in the post workouts. He did a good job of throwing his weight around in the games and about brought the goal down on one dunk. He is athletic for his size and has a 10-12 ft. range on his jumper.

His main problem is his conditioning as he was easily winded from the up-temp style of the games.

Desmond says he plans on attending the Mike Hart camp in Vegas this summer, and is considering going to the IBL camp as well. The general consensus around camp was that Desmond could be a monster in the paint if he lost some more weight and got into better shape.

Brian Fisher (G, 6’3”, 185lbs., Winston-Salem State Univ.)

Brian Fisher profile

Brian only came to the camp on Saturday, so [James] did not get to see him as much as he would have liked.

He did watch him in his individual workout and Brian did well. He has deep range on his 3 ball and has good form on his jumper. He also displayed good footwork.

In his words, Brian is “trying to get across the water” after graduating from WSSU in June. He plans on attending a few other exposure clinics as well. He has been invited to ones in Myrtle Beach and in his home town Atlanta.

He is currently looking for an agent in addition to attending the exposure camps.

When asked about what he thought about Winston-Salem State going back to the CIAA and D-II NCAA, he was not pleased and thought they were taking a step back after being D-I the last 4 years.

He enjoyed his time at State and said it was worth playing the big schools such as Wake, Georgia Tech, and Oregon for the experience even though they did not win many games against the D-I competition. He said it made them better as a team and also liked the fact that it showed him what it takes to play at that level.

One of the main differences according to Brian was the basketball IQ.

Best of luck to each one of these guys in their endeavors of playing professionally.

The Jump Manual